The 2026 Environment
The 2026 Canadian M&A environment.
The Canadian M&A market is entering 2026 with cautious momentum. Total deal value in 2025 surpassed prior years, driven largely by mega-deals in resources and financial services. The lower middle market, however, tells a more nuanced story.
Several forces are shaping the current landscape. The Bank of Canada has reduced the overnight rate to 2.25%, improving acquisition financing conditions. Private equity firms globally are sitting on an estimated US$1.2 trillion in dry powder, with nearly a quarter of that capital aged four years or more, creating mounting pressure to deploy. Technology continues to lead deal count in Canada, with industrials in second position.
Earnouts are being used more frequently. In 2024, 27% of lower middle market transactions included an earnout component, up from 20% in 2019. This reflects the challenge of bridging valuation gaps in an environment where trade policy uncertainty makes historical financials less predictive of future performance.
For sellers, the implication is clear: the market is active, buyers have capital, but diligence standards are elevated. Companies with clean financials, demonstrable earnings quality, and a structured sale process are commanding full valuations. Those without are facing discounts or prolonged timelines.
How EBITDA multiples are calculated and applied.
The enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple is calculated by dividing a company’s enterprise value by its EBITDA. Enterprise value equals the purchase price plus assumed debt, minus cash on the balance sheet. EBITDA represents earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
In practice, buyers use adjusted EBITDA, which normalizes for one-time expenses, owner compensation above market rate, non-recurring legal or consulting fees, and other items that do not reflect the ongoing earning power of the business. The quality and defensibility of these adjustments directly influence the final multiple. A company with $2M in adjusted EBITDA selling at a 6.0x multiple implies an enterprise value of $12M. If the company holds $1M in cash and $500K in debt, the implied equity value to the seller would be $12.5M.
EBITDA vs. other valuation metrics.
EBITDA multiples are the standard valuation shorthand in lower middle market M&A because they normalize for differences in capital structure, tax jurisdiction, and accounting treatment. For businesses under $1M in EBITDA, seller’s discretionary earnings (SDE) is generally more appropriate. For high-growth technology companies reinvesting heavily, revenue multiples (EV/Revenue) may be more relevant. No single metric captures the full picture; the multiple is a starting point for valuation, not an endpoint.