Valuation Lab · Calculator
The quick estimate is ARR times a fixed multiple: 4.0x by default, the SEG SaaS M&A median EV/TTM revenue for 2Q26, with a 3.1x-4.6x band. The operating model then forecasts 36 months of MRR from net revenue retention and new customers, so acquisition cost, gross margin and operating costs change value through cash flow and the DCF cross-check, while today’s ARR-multiple estimate stays anchored to today’s ARR.
Two different questions get confused in SaaS valuation: what the business is worth today on its current ARR, and what it could be worth in one to three years if the operating plan holds. The tool keeps them apart. Changing a future CAC assumption changes the forecast and the discounted cash flows; it does not change the simple ARR-multiple estimate of today’s business.
The acquisition module offers two explicit modes because CAC, spend, customers acquired and growth cannot all be independent inputs. With a fixed monthly budget, a higher CAC buys fewer customers and the ARR curve flattens. With a fixed customer target, a higher CAC costs more cash each month and cuts EBITDA while the ARR curve is unchanged.
The interactive calculator loads here. The published example scenario below is the same model (2026.09.22-1) evaluated at the example inputs.
Current indicative enterprise value (ARR x multiple, today): $4.8M. $3.7M to $5.5M (3.1x to 4.6x ARR)
Current equity value $4.8M. Projected enterprise value in 36 months: $24.1M (a future value, not today’s valuation). DCF present enterprise value: $27.5M. ARR multiple: 4.0x = SEG SaaS M&A median EV/TTM revenue 2Q26; band 3.1x (Aventis private SaaS M&A, Q1 2026) to 4.6x (Aventis public SaaS median, Aug 2026).
ARR in 12 / 24 / 36 mo: $2.7M / $4.3M / $6.0M · CAC payback (GM-adjusted): 7.5 mo · Peak cash requirement: $5,837 · DCF present EV: $27.5M
| Horizon | ARR | TTM revenue | Customers | Enterprise value | Range | Baseline EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month 12 | $2.7M | $2.0M | 220 | $10.9M | $8.5M to $12.6M | |
| Month 24 | $4.3M | $3.5M | 340 | $17.4M | $13.5M to $20.0M | |
| Month 36 | $6.0M | $5.2M | 460 | $24.1M | $18.7M to $27.7M | |
| Today (current ARR) | $1.2M | $4.8M | $3.7M to $5.5M | |||
| DCF present enterprise value (5-yr unlevered, WACC 14.0%, g 3.0%) | $27.5M | terminal value 75% of total |
CAC payback (gross-margin adjusted): 7.5 mo. Peak cumulative cash requirement: $5,837. Model 2026.09.22-1.
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Mode | Operating model (36-month forecast + DCF cross-check) |
| Current ARR | $1,200,000 |
| Net revenue retention (annual) | 105% |
| Gross margin | 80% |
| Annual contract value per new customer | $12,000 |
| Acquisition mode | Fixed acquisition budget per month |
| Monthly acquisition spend | $60,000 |
| Customer acquisition cost (fully loaded) | $6,000 |
| Other operating costs per month | $30,000 |
| ARR multiple (held fixed) | 4x |
| Discount rate (WACC) | 14% |
| Terminal growth | 3% |
| Cash tax rate | 25% |
| Excess cash | $0 |
| Debt | $0 |
The 4.0x default is a transaction median, not a public trading multiple: SEG reported 4.0x for SaaS M&A in 2Q26 while its public index median sat at 3.2x at quarter-end and about 4.2x daily in September. Aventis places private SaaS M&A at 3.1x in Q1 2026 and the public median at 4.6x in August 2026; those bound the band. A company growing above 22% with 110%+ NRR can command more, and one below 10% growth with thin gross margin will command less, but the multiple is held fixed unless you change it deliberately under advanced assumptions.
AI application software often carries lower gross margin because inference cost sits in cost of revenue. Set gross margin to 55%-65% instead of 80% and watch payback, cash requirement and the DCF cross-check move: the tool prices the cost through cash flow rather than through a category premium. Public AI application software cleared a median 11.1x trailing revenue in Windsor Drake’s Q3 2026 comparable set, against 33.2x for compute hosting; see the AI valuation multiples explorer.
Exploring what your company is worth? A principal will give you a confidential perspective on how the market is pricing businesses like yours: current multiples, the acquirers active in your sector, and where your company would likely land.
4.0x ARR by default, the SEG SaaS M&A median EV/TTM revenue for 2Q26, with a band of 3.1x (Aventis private M&A, Q1 2026) to 4.6x (Aventis public median, Aug 2026). You can override it under advanced assumptions.
Today’s quick estimate is current ARR times the multiple. CAC changes future customer acquisition and cash flow, so it changes the 12-, 24- and 36-month projections and the DCF, not the present ARR.
Fixed budget holds spend constant, so a higher CAC yields fewer customers. Fixed customer target holds acquisitions constant, so a higher CAC raises spend and lowers cash flow. The work-order fixtures for both modes are reproduced in the published example.
No. Annual NRR already includes churn, contraction and expansion. If detailed churn and expansion controls are enabled, NRR is derived from them and cannot be edited independently.
No. ARR is twelve times the closing month’s MRR. Trailing-twelve-month revenue is the sum of recognized monthly revenue; the table shows both.
Enterprise value is quoted cash-free and debt-free; equity value adds excess cash and subtracts debt and debt-like items, before fees, taxes, escrow, rollover and earn-outs. Every method states its denominator, period (trailing twelve months unless labelled), currency (USD) and treatment of cash and debt. Results are ranges under stated assumptions, not statistical confidence intervals. Company inputs stay in the browser and are never transmitted. Benchmark snapshot 2026.09.22-1; model 2026.09.22-1; changes are recorded in the Valuation Lab changelog in the Windsor Drake repository.
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