Valuation Lab · Calculator

SaaS valuation calculator

The quick estimate is ARR times a fixed multiple: 4.0x by default, the SEG SaaS M&A median EV/TTM revenue for 2Q26, with a 3.1x-4.6x band. The operating model then forecasts 36 months of MRR from net revenue retention and new customers, so acquisition cost, gross margin and operating costs change value through cash flow and the DCF cross-check, while today’s ARR-multiple estimate stays anchored to today’s ARR.

By Jeff Barrington, Founder and Managing Director · Model 2026.09.22-1 · Benchmarks 2026.09.22-1 · Published 2026-09-22

Two different questions get confused in SaaS valuation: what the business is worth today on its current ARR, and what it could be worth in one to three years if the operating plan holds. The tool keeps them apart. Changing a future CAC assumption changes the forecast and the discounted cash flows; it does not change the simple ARR-multiple estimate of today’s business.

The acquisition module offers two explicit modes because CAC, spend, customers acquired and growth cannot all be independent inputs. With a fixed monthly budget, a higher CAC buys fewer customers and the ARR curve flattens. With a fixed customer target, a higher CAC costs more cash each month and cuts EBITDA while the ARR curve is unchanged.

The interactive calculator loads here. The published example scenario below is the same model (2026.09.22-1) evaluated at the example inputs.

Worked example

Current indicative enterprise value (ARR x multiple, today): $4.8M. $3.7M to $5.5M (3.1x to 4.6x ARR)

Current equity value $4.8M. Projected enterprise value in 36 months: $24.1M (a future value, not today’s valuation). DCF present enterprise value: $27.5M. ARR multiple: 4.0x = SEG SaaS M&A median EV/TTM revenue 2Q26; band 3.1x (Aventis private SaaS M&A, Q1 2026) to 4.6x (Aventis public SaaS median, Aug 2026).

ARR in 12 / 24 / 36 mo: $2.7M / $4.3M / $6.0M · CAC payback (GM-adjusted): 7.5 mo · Peak cash requirement: $5,837 · DCF present EV: $27.5M

Published example: results table and inputs (model 2026.09.22-1)
Projected value and cross-check
Horizon ARR TTM revenue Customers Enterprise value Range Baseline EV
Month 12 $2.7M $2.0M 220 $10.9M $8.5M to $12.6M
Month 24 $4.3M $3.5M 340 $17.4M $13.5M to $20.0M
Month 36 $6.0M $5.2M 460 $24.1M $18.7M to $27.7M
Today (current ARR) $1.2M $4.8M $3.7M to $5.5M
DCF present enterprise value (5-yr unlevered, WACC 14.0%, g 3.0%) $27.5M terminal value 75% of total

CAC payback (gross-margin adjusted): 7.5 mo. Peak cumulative cash requirement: $5,837. Model 2026.09.22-1.

Published example inputs
Input Value
Mode Operating model (36-month forecast + DCF cross-check)
Current ARR $1,200,000
Net revenue retention (annual) 105%
Gross margin 80%
Annual contract value per new customer $12,000
Acquisition mode Fixed acquisition budget per month
Monthly acquisition spend $60,000
Customer acquisition cost (fully loaded) $6,000
Other operating costs per month $30,000
ARR multiple (held fixed) 4x
Discount rate (WACC) 14%
Terminal growth 3%
Cash tax rate 25%
Excess cash $0
Debt $0

How the monthly model works

Reading the value band

The 4.0x default is a transaction median, not a public trading multiple: SEG reported 4.0x for SaaS M&A in 2Q26 while its public index median sat at 3.2x at quarter-end and about 4.2x daily in September. Aventis places private SaaS M&A at 3.1x in Q1 2026 and the public median at 4.6x in August 2026; those bound the band. A company growing above 22% with 110%+ NRR can command more, and one below 10% growth with thin gross margin will command less, but the multiple is held fixed unless you change it deliberately under advanced assumptions.

AI application preset

AI application software often carries lower gross margin because inference cost sits in cost of revenue. Set gross margin to 55%-65% instead of 80% and watch payback, cash requirement and the DCF cross-check move: the tool prices the cost through cash flow rather than through a category premium. Public AI application software cleared a median 11.1x trailing revenue in Windsor Drake’s Q3 2026 comparable set, against 33.2x for compute hosting; see the AI valuation multiples explorer.

Limitations

Next step for a founder

Exploring what your company is worth? A principal will give you a confidential perspective on how the market is pricing businesses like yours: current multiples, the acquirers active in your sector, and where your company would likely land.

Questions founders ask

What multiple does the SaaS calculator use?

4.0x ARR by default, the SEG SaaS M&A median EV/TTM revenue for 2Q26, with a band of 3.1x (Aventis private M&A, Q1 2026) to 4.6x (Aventis public median, Aug 2026). You can override it under advanced assumptions.

Why does doubling CAC not change today’s valuation?

Today’s quick estimate is current ARR times the multiple. CAC changes future customer acquisition and cash flow, so it changes the 12-, 24- and 36-month projections and the DCF, not the present ARR.

What is the difference between the two acquisition modes?

Fixed budget holds spend constant, so a higher CAC yields fewer customers. Fixed customer target holds acquisitions constant, so a higher CAC raises spend and lowers cash flow. The work-order fixtures for both modes are reproduced in the published example.

Does the tool add churn on top of NRR?

No. Annual NRR already includes churn, contraction and expansion. If detailed churn and expansion controls are enabled, NRR is derived from them and cannot be edited independently.

Is ARR the same as revenue?

No. ARR is twelve times the closing month’s MRR. Trailing-twelve-month revenue is the sum of recognized monthly revenue; the table shows both.

Methodology, sources and definitions

Enterprise value is quoted cash-free and debt-free; equity value adds excess cash and subtracts debt and debt-like items, before fees, taxes, escrow, rollover and earn-outs. Every method states its denominator, period (trailing twelve months unless labelled), currency (USD) and treatment of cash and debt. Results are ranges under stated assumptions, not statistical confidence intervals. Company inputs stay in the browser and are never transmitted. Benchmark snapshot 2026.09.22-1; model 2026.09.22-1; changes are recorded in the Valuation Lab changelog in the Windsor Drake repository.